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- Download QM for Windows for free - SoftDeluxe

The names of the items POM or QM depend on the web site from which the installation program was downloaded. To uninstall the program use the usual Windows uninstall procedure which depends on which version of Windows you have. The programs will be removed but the data files you have created may not be depending on your version of Windows and where you have placed your data files.

In addition to the Start menu, the installation will place a shortcut to the program on the desktop. The icon appears as one of the two icons displayed below depending on the textbook being used. Whichever desktop icon has been installed is the icon that can be used to easily begin the program. Starting the Program The easiest way to start the program is by double clicking the program icon that is on the desktop.

Alternatively, you may use any standard Windows means for starting the program. After starting the program, a splash screen will appear as follows. This should be your name if you are running on a stand-alone computer or the network name if you are running on a network.

Version Number One important piece of information is the version number of the software. In the example, the version is 5. If you send e-mail asking for technical support, you should include the build number with the e-mail. The program will start in a couple of seconds after the opening display appears and a screen with instructions on 4 steps with how to work with the software will appear.

There is an option on the bottom left to prevent this screen from displaying. The Main Screen The next screen that appears is an empty main menu screen. In order to display all of the screen components, the following screen shows a module and a loaded data file. At the beginning the title is POM for Windows or QM for Window and the names of the authors of your Pearson text should appear in this title bar at the beginning of the program as shown in the figure on the previous page.

If not, go to Help, User Information. The title bar will change to include the name of the file when a file is loaded or saved as shown above. On the left of the title bar is the standard Windows control box and on the right are the standard minimize, maximize, and close buttons for the window-sizing options. Below the title bar is a bar that contains the main menu. The menu bar is very conventional and should be easy to use. At the beginning of the program, the Edit option is not enabled, because there is no data to edit.

The Solutions option is also disabled, because this refers to results windows and there are as yet no results. This toolbar contains shortcuts for several of the most commonly used menu commands. If you move the mouse over the tool for about two seconds, an explanation of the tool balloon help or tool tip appears on the screen.

It is possible to reduce the height of the toolbar by using the View menu to remove the labels from the toolbars. This is what you press after you have entered the data and you are ready to solve the problem.

Alternatively, you may click on the Solutions menu; use File, Solve or press the [F9] key. This is how you go back and forth from entering data to viewing the solution. For two modules, linear programming and transportation, there is one more command that will appear on the standard toolbar. This is the STEP tool not displayed in the figure , and it enables you to step through the iterations, displaying one iteration at a time. If you indicated that you are a MyOMLab user when you installed the software or from User Preferences then another toolbar will appear as shown above with tools to be used for pasting from MyOMLab and setting the decimals to match the specification in the MyOMLab problem.

Below the standard toolbar is a format toolbar. This toolbar is very similar to the toolbars found in Excel, Word, and other Windows programs. The table contains a heading or title, and rows and columns.

Double-clicking on the title or using Format, Title will give you the option to modify the title. The number of rows and columns depends on the module, problem type, and specific problem. Above the data table is an area named the extra data bar for placing extra problem information. Sometimes it is necessary to indicate whether to minimize or maximize, sometimes it is necessary to select a method, and sometimes some value must be given.

These generally appear above the data. There is always an instruction in the instruction panel to help you to determine what to do or what to enter. When data is to be entered into the data table, this instruction will explain what type of data integer, real, positive, etc. There also is an area for annotating problems.

A comment may be placed here. When the file is saved, the comment will be saved; when the file is loaded, the comment will appear and the comment may be printed if so desired. Toward the bottom of the screen is the status bar. The center panel contains the type of screen data, results, menu, graph, etc.

The status bar can be hidden by using the View option. This panel cannot be moved. On the left side of the screen is a module tree that allows you to easily start new problems, rather than using the Module and File menus in the main toolbar. This enables the student to easily create multiple problems using the same module. The tree can be hidden and then it can be redisplayed through the use of the View menu.

Although not all problems or modules are identical, there is enough similarity among them that seeing one example will make it very easy to use any module in this software. As mentioned in the introduction, the first instruction is to select a module to begin the work. Modules can be selected from either the Module Tree on the left or the Module menu or the textbook menu.

The Module menu has the capability to display only the POM modules or only the QM modules or all of the modules in the software. Creating a New Problem Generally, the first menu option that will be chosen is File, followed by either New, to create a new data set, or Open, to load a previously saved data set. The Module Tree on the left of the screen can be used for a quicker start to new problems. In the figure that follows, the creation screen that is used when a new problem is started is displayed.

Obviously, creating a new problem is an option that will be chosen very often. The creation screens are similar for all modules, but there are slight differences that you will see from module to module. The default title can be changed by pressing the button [Modify Default Title].

If you want to change the title after creating the problem, this can easily be done by using the Format, Title option from the main menu or double-clicking on the title on the Data Screen. For many modules, it is necessary to enter the number of rows in the problem.

Rows will have different names depending on the module. At any rate, the number of rows can be chosen with either the scrollbar or the text box. As is usually the case in Windows, they are connected. As you move the scrollbar, the number in the text box changes; as you change the text, the scrollbar moves. In general, the maximum number of rows in any module is There are three ways to add or delete rows or columns after the problem has been created. Rows will be inserted after the rows that you have selected in the data table, just as is the case in Excel.

The same holds true for columns. This program has the capability to allow you different options for the default row names.

Select one of the six option buttons in order to indicate which style of default naming should be used. In most modules, the row names can be changed by editing the data table. Many modules require a number of columns. This is given in the same way as the number of rows. The program gives you a choice of default values for column names in the same fashion as row names but on the tab Column Names. An overview tab is included on the creation screen in this version of the software.

The overview tab gives a brief description of the models that are available and also gives any important information regarding the creation or data entry for that module. Some modules, such as the linear programming example displayed previously, will have an extra option box, such as for choosing minimize or maximize or selecting whether distances are symmetric. Select one of these options. In most cases, this option can be changed later on the data screen in case you have made a mistake.

When you are satisfied with your choices, click on the [OK] button. At this point, a blank data screen will appear as in the following figure. Screens will differ module by module but they will all resemble the following screen. The Data Screen The data screen was described briefly in Chapter 1. It has a data table and, for many models, there is extra information that appears above the data table follows. Every entry is in a row and column position.

You navigate through the spreadsheet using the cursor movement keys or the mouse. The instruction frame on the screen contains a brief instruction describing what is to be done.

There are essentially three types of cells in the data table. One type is a regular data cell into which you enter either a name or a number. When entering names and numbers, simply type the name or number, then press the [Enter] key, one of the direction keys, or click on another cell.

The [Enter] key is often best as it will automatically move to the next row at the end of one row. If you type an illegal character, a message box will be displayed indicating so.

A second type is a cell that cannot be edited. For example, the empty cell in the upper left-hand corner of the table cannot be edited. You actually could paste into the cell. For example, the signs in a linear programming constraint are chosen from this type of box, as shown in the following illustration. To see all of the options, press the arrow on the drop-down box.

When you are finished entering the data, press the SOLVE tool on the toolbar or use [F9] or File, Solve or the Solutions menu item and a solution screen will appear as given in the following illustration. The original data is in black and the solution is in a color.

This can be seen by the Solutions menu item. If you click on the Help, User Preferences button you can set up the behavior of the software when a problem is solved. The next two options remind you that more results may exist than the one window displayed.

The second option automatically drops down the Window menu while the third option opens all available windows when you solve a problem. Now that the creation and solution of a problem have been examined, all of the options that are available in the main menu are explained.

These options are now described. New As demonstrated in the sample problem, this option is chosen to begin a new problem or file. In some cases, you will go directly to the problem creation screen, whereas in other cases a pop-up menu will appear indicating the submodels that are available.

After selecting a submodel, you will go to the creation screen. File selection is done using the standard Windows common dialog type. An example of the screen for opening a file follows. Notice that the extension for files in the software system is almost always given by the first three letters of the module name. When you go to the Open File dialog, the default value is for the program to look for files of the type in this module.

It is possible to use Help, User Information to set the program to automatically solve any problem when it gets loaded. This way, if you like, you can be looking at the solution screen whenever you load a problem rather than at the data screen.

Close Close will close the current model. This is here to be consistent with Office programs but is not very useful since you can only have one model open at a time in POM-QM as opposed to Excel or Word where you can have multiple documents open simulotaneously.

If you try to save and have not previously named the file, you will be asked to name this file. That is, the command will function as Save As. Save as Save as will prompt you for a file name before saving.

This option is very similar to the option to load a data file. It is essentially identical to the one previously shown for opening files.

The names that are legal are standard Windows file names. In addition to the file name, you may preface the name with a drive letter with its colon or path designation. The software will automatically append an extension to the name that you use. As mentioned previously, the extension is typically the first three letters of the module name. You may type file names in as uppercase, lowercase, or mixed. Examples of legal file names are sample, sample. If you enter sample. For example, if the module is linear programming, the name under which the file will be saved will be sample.

Save as Excel File The software has an option that allows you to save most but not all of the problems as Excel files. The data is transported to Excel and the spreadsheet is filled with formulas for the solutions. For example, following is the output from a waiting line model. The left-hand side has the data, whereas the right-hand side has the solution. Notice from the formula for cell E7 shown at the top of the spreadsheet that a spreadsheet with formulas was created.

Print Print will display a Print Setup screen. Printing options are described in Chapter 4. Solve There are several ways to solve a problem. Clicking on File, Solve is probably the least efficient way to solve the problem. The toolbar icon may be used, as well as selection the Solutions menu or using the [F9] key.

This is the easiest way to go back and forth between data and solutions. Note that Help, User Information may be used to set the program to automatically maximize the solution windows if so desired. Step For the linear programming and transportation modules, a Step option not displayed in the preceding figure will appear in the File menu and on the toolbar.

Exit The next option on the File menu is Exit. This will exit the program. You will be asked if you want to exit the program. You can eliminate this question by using Help, User Information. Last Four Files The File menu contains a list of the last four files that you have used. Clicking on one of these will load the file. Edit The commands under Edit can be seen in the following illustration. Their purposes are threefold. Insert Rows inserts a row after each selected row s , and Insert Columns inserts a column after each selected column s.

Delete Row s deletes the selected row s , and Delete Column s deletes the selected column s. Paste Paste is used to paste in the current contents of the clipboard. Thus, it is possible to copy a column to a different column beginning in a different row. This could be done to create a diagonal. It is not possible to paste into a solution table, although, as indicated previously, it is possible to copy from a solution table. Copy Entry Down Column The Copy Down command is used to copy an entry from one cell to all cells below it in the column.

This is not often useful, but it can save a great deal of work when it is. Note: Right clicking on any table will bring up Copy options and if the table is the data table it will also bring up the insert and delete options.

View View has several options that enable you to customize the appearance of the screen. In addition, the labels on the toolbars can be displayed or hidden. There is an option under Help, User Information that will automatically autosize the columns of all windows — data and solution windows.

Textbook This menu will display the modules in the order in which they appear in your textbook. Note that if you are using a custom textbook the chapters may not be the same since this menu is based on the non-custom version of the textbook. Module A drop-down list with all of the modules in alphabetical order will appear. At the bottom of the list are options for indicating whether you want to display only the POM modules as displayed , only the QM modules, or all of the modules as the following display shows.

Please see the appendix. Format Format has several options for the display of data and solution tables, as can be seen in the following illustration.

In addition, there are some additional format options available in the format toolbar. The Comma option displays numbers greater than with a comma. The Increase and Decrease Number of decimals controls the maximum number of decimals displayed.

If you turn on the Fixed decimal option, then all numbers would have 2 decimals. Thus 1. The Leading Zero option displays numbers less than one with a leading 0 such as 0. Zeros can be set to display as blanks rather than zeros in tables. The problem title that appears in the data table, and which was created at the creation screen, also can be changed.

Note: All tables can have their column widths changed by clicking on the line separating the columns and dragging the column divider left or right. Double clicking on this line will not automatically adjust the column width as it does in Excel.

The input can be checked by the software or not using the Verify Input option. It is a good idea to always check the input, but not checking allows you to put entries into cells that otherwise could not be put there.

Background Colors The background colors can be set to their default colors for Version5 or gray as in Version 4 or any other custom color. Double-clicking on the problem title will also bring up the title editor. Tools The software should find the Windows calculator if you select the Calculator option.

If not, a calculator is available for simple calculations, including square root. Numbers may be copied from the calculator and pasted into an individual cell in the data table. A Normal Distribution Calculator is available for performing calculations related to the Normal distribution. This is particularly useful for forecasting and project management. An example of the Normal Calculator appears in Chapter 6 in the section on project management.

The same computations can be done in the Statistics module but the calculator is a little more intuitive to use. The Calendar tool brings up a calendar.

This can be useful for Aggregate Planning problems or simply if you want to see a calendar. There is an area available to Comment problems. If you want to write a note to yourself about the problem, select Comment. The note will be saved with the file if you save the file.

An example of annotation appears in Chapter 1. In order to eliminate the annotation completely, the box must be blank by deleting and then the file must be resaved.

When you print, you have an option to print the note or not. The Snipping tool brings up the Windows snipping tool. The Options tool brings up user preferences as can also be done using Help, User Preferences and will be displayed under the Help explanation. This menu option is enabled only at the solution screen. Notice that in this example there are six different output screens that can be viewed.

The number of windows depends on the specific module and problem. Following is a display of the screen after using the Tile option from the Solutions menu when the screen resolution was set to 1, by 1, With this resolution it may be very useful to tile in order to see all of the available solution windows. In fact, using Help, User Information, you could set all solution windows to open up for every problem. Obviously, the value of this option depends on your screen resolution.

The third option is the topic; it gives a description of the module, the data required for input, the output results, and the options available in the module.

It is worthwhile to look at this screen at least one time in order to be certain that there are no unsuspected differences between your assumptions and the assumptions of the program. If there is anything to be warned about regarding the option, it will appear on the help screen as well as in Chapter 6 of this manual.

E-mail support uses your e-mail to set up a message to be sent to Pearson. Program Update points you to www. Updates are on the download page. User Information Options The user information form is shown as follows. The first tab can be used to change the name of the course, instructor, or school. The student name is set at the time of installation of the software and cannot be changed.

There are differences among displays, models available, and computations for different textbooks. Notice the build number after the version number. If you send e-mail requesting help, please be sure to include this build number.

This site contains updates! There are several options on this screen. Information to Print The options in the frame depend on whether Print was selected from the data screen or from the solution screen.

From the data screen, the only option that will appear is to print the data. However, from the solution screen there will be one option for each screen of solution values. You can select which of these will be printed other than the graph which must be printed separately. In general, the data is printed when printing the output, and, therefore, it is seldom necessary to print the data, meaning that all printing can be performed after the problem is solved.

Printing Graphs It is possible to do your graph printing from the graph screen described in the next chapter rather than from the results screen. Paper Orientation The paper can be printed in upright fashion portrait or it can be printed sideways landscape if you need more space for columns. Color Do not opt for color if you do not have a color printer.

This usually is not the desired characteristic. Margins The left and right margins can be set as. Some of the modules have more than one graph associated with them. For example, as shown in the following figure, four different project management graphs are available. The graph to be displayed is chosen using the tab. There are several options that you have when a graph appears, and those options are explained in this chapter.

When a graph is opened it will be displayed covering the entire area below the extra data. The Save option will save the graph as a BMP file. The Copy option can be used to copy the graph in order to paste it into another Windows document.

The Print image will send the graph to your printer and print on one page. The Windows Snipping Tool can be opened with the last option. The input required for each module, the options available for modeling and solving, and the different output screens and reports that can be seen and printed are explained.

For all modules that are in included in the POM menu, we display the POM for Windows icon and for all modules that are in the QM menu we display the QM for Windows icon: For example, in the first module, aggregate planning, which begins on the next page, the POM icon is displayed because aggregate planning is typically a topic in Operations Management courses but not in Management Science courses and thus appears in the POM-only menu.

In addition, examples from your textbook have been included in a folder with the name of the first author of the textbook. For these modules, the names used by KRM follow the names used by the software. Aggregate planning refers to the fact that the production planning is usually carried out across product lines.

The terms aggregate planning and production planning are used interchangeably. The main planning difficulty is that demands vary from month to month. Production should remain as stable as possible, yet it should maintain minimum inventory and experience minimum shortages.

The costs of production, overtime, subcontracting, inventory, shortages, and changes in production levels must be balanced. In some cases, aggregate planning problems might require the use of the transportation or linear programming modules. The second submodel in the aggregate planning module creates and solves a transportation model of aggregate planning for cases where all of the costs are identical. The transportation model is also available as one of the methods for the first submodel.

The Aggregate Planning Model Production planning problems are characterized by a demand schedule, a set of capacities, various costs, and a method for handling shortages. Consider the following example. Example 1: Smooth Production Consider a situation where demands in the next four periods are for , , , and units. Current inventory is 0 units.

Suppose that regular time capacity is units per month and that overtime and subcontracting are not considerations. The screen for this example follows. In addition to the data, there are two considerations — shortage handling and the method to use for performing the planning. These appear in the area above the data. Shortage handling. In production planning there are two models for handling shortages. In one model, shortages are backordered. In another model, the shortages become lost sales.

That is, if you cannot satisfy the demand in the period in which it is requested, the demand disappears. This option is above the data table. Six methods are available, which will be demonstrated. Please note that smooth production accounts for two methods. Smooth production will have equal production in every period.

This yields two methods because the production can be set according to the gross demand or the net demand gross demand minus initial inventory. Produce to demand will create a production schedule that is identical to the demand schedule.

Constant regular time production, followed by overtime and subcontracting if necessary. The lesser cost method will be selected first. Any production schedule is available in which case the user must enter the amounts to be produced in each period. The transportation model. Quantities Demand. The demands are the driving force of aggregate planning and these are given in the second column. Capacities — regular time, overtime, and subcontracting. The program allows for three types of production — regular time, overtime, and subcontracting, — and capacities for these are given in the next three columns.

When deciding whether to use overtime or subcontracting, the program will always first select the one that is less expensive. Costs The costs for the problem are all placed in the far right column of the data screen. Production costs — regular time, overtime, and subcontracting. These are the per- unit production costs depending on when and how the unit is made. Inventory holding cost.

This is the amount charged for holding 1 unit for 1 period. The total holding cost is charged against the ending inventory. Be careful; although most textbooks charge against the ending inventory, some textbooks charge against average inventory during the period. Shortage cost. This is the amount charged for each unit that is short in a given period. Whether it is assumed that the shortages are backlogged and satisfied as soon as stock becomes available in a future period or are lost sales is indicated by the option box above the data table.

Shortage costs are charged against end-of- month levels. Cost to increase production. This is the cost that results from having changes in the production schedule. It is given on a per-unit basis. The cost for increasing production entails hiring costs. It is charged against the changes in the amount of regular time production but not charged against any overtime or subcontracting production volume changes.

However, this is the cost for reducing production. It is charged only against regular time production volume changes. Other Considerations Initial inventory. Oftentimes we have a starting inventory from the end of the previous period. The starting inventory is placed in the far right column towards the bottom. Units last period. These units appear in the far right column at the bottom.

The Solution In the first example, shown in the following screen, the smooth production method and backorders have been chosen. The demands are , , , and , and the regular time capacity of exceeds this demand. There is no initial inventory. The numbers represent the production quantities. The costs can be seen toward the bottom of the columns. The screen contains information on both a period-by-period basis and on a summary basis. Notice the color coding of the data black , intermediate computations magenta and results blue.

Regular time production. This amount is determined by the program for all options except User Defined. In this example, because the gross or net demand is , there are units produced in regular time in each of the 4 periods.

If the total demand is not an even multiple of the number of periods, extra units will be produced in as many periods as necessary in order to meet the demand.

For example, had the total demand been , the production schedule would have been in the first and second periods and in the other two periods.

The accumulated inventory appears in this column if it is positive. If there is a shortage, the amount of the shortage appears in this column. In the example, the in the shortage column for Period 3 means that units of demand have not been met. Because the backlog option has been chosen, the demands are met as soon as possible, which is in the last period.

In this example, no increase or decrease from month to month occurs, so these columns do not appear in this display. The total numbers of units demanded, produced, in inventory, short, or in increased and decreased production are computed. In the example, units were demanded and units were produced, and there were a total of unit- months of inventory, unit-months of shortage, and 0 increased or decreased production unit-months.

The totals of the columns are multiplied by the appropriate costs, yielding the total cost for each of the cost components. Total cost. The overall total cost is computed and displayed. Graph Two graphs are available in this module. It is possible to display a bar graph of production in each period not shown , and it is also possible to display a graph of the cumulative production versus the cumulative demand shown. These modifications can be seen in the following screen. In addition, the method has been changed to use the net demand.

Thus only units per month need to be produced. This can be seen as follows. Because there is not enough regular time capacity, the program looks to overtime and subcontracting.

It first chooses the one that is less expensive. Example 4: When subcontracting is less expensive than overtime The following screen shows a case where subcontracting is less expensive than overtime. This time, the program first chooses subcontracting and, because there is sufficient capacity, overtime is not used at all. The output shows a shortage of units at the end of Period 3.

In the next period, we produce units even though we need only units. These extra units are not used to satisfy the Period 3 shortage, because these have become lost sales.

The units go into inventory, as can be seen from the inventory column in Period 4. It does not make sense to use the smooth production model and have lost sales. In the end, the total demand is not actually , because of the sales were lost. Example 6: The produce to demand no inventory strategy From the first example the method has been toggled to produce to demand or chase strategy. The inventory is not displayed because it is always 0 under this option.

With production equal to demand and no starting inventory, there will be neither changes in inventory nor shortages. In this example, production in Period 1 was and production in Period 2 was Therefore, the increase column has a in it for Period 2. The program will not list any increase in Period 1 if no initial production is given.

The total increases have been ; decreases The change in production from the previous period to this period occurs in this column if the change represents an increase. Notice that the program assumes that no change takes place in the first period in this example because the initial data not displayed indicated that 0 units were produced last month. In this example, there is no change in other periods because production is constant under the smooth production option.

If production decreases, the decrease appears in this column. Example 7: Increase and decrease charging The previous example had increases and decreases in production.

These increases and decreases are accounted for by regular time production. In the following screen, the regular time capacity is reduced in order to force production through regular time and overtime. Notice that the increase column only has a value in it in the second period when regular time production went from to units. The regular time production remains at ; even though overtime increases, this does not show up in the increase columns.

There are no charges against overtime or subcontracting increases. The only difference is that the transportation model does not consider changes in production levels, so there is no data entry allowed for increase and decrease costs or for units last period.

The creation screen will ask for the number of periods and whether shortages are allowed. The similarity to the previous input screens can be seen as follows. Notice that there is only one entry for each of the costs. Thus, this model can not be used for situations where the costs change from period to period. You must formulate these problems yourself using the transportation model from the Module menu rather than this transportation submodel of aggregate planning.

Note: The transportation model that is the second submodel in the New menu can also be accessed as the last method in the first submodel, The solution screen is displayed next. The window on the right summarizes the production quantities, unit-months of holding and shortage if applicable , and the costs.

It is even more obvious that this is a transportation problem if the second window of output which is the transportation model itself is examined. The large numbers 9, have been entered in order to preclude the program from backordering. If you like, this table could be copied; you could then open the Transportation model, create a new empty table that is 13 by 4 and paste this data in to that table.

Five heuristic rules can be used for performing the balance. The cycle time can be given explicitly or the production rate can be given and the program will compute the cycle time. This model will not split tasks. Task splitting is discussed in more detail in a later section. The Model The general framework for assembly-line balancing is dictated by the number of tasks that are to be balanced. These tasks are partially ordered, as shown, for example in the precedence diagram that follows.

The five heuristic rules that can be chosen are as follows: 1. Longest operation time 2. Most following tasks 3. Ranked positional weight 4. Shortest operation time 5. Note that tie breaking can affect the final results. The remaining parameters are as follows: Cycle time computation. The cycle time can be given in one of two ways. One way involves giving the cycle time directly as shown in the preceding screen. Although this is the easiest method, it is more common to determine the cycle time from the demand rate.

Notice that the column heading for the task times will change as you select different time units. Task names. The task names are essential for assembly-line balancing because they determine the precedences. Case does not matter. Task times. The task times are given. Enter the precedences, one per cell. If there are two precedences they must be entered in two cells. In fact, a comma will not be accepted. Notice that in the precedence list in the previous screen both a and A have been typed.

As mentioned previously, the case of the letters is irrelevant. Example 1 In this example there are six tasks, a through f. The precedence diagram for this problem appears previously. The time to perform each task is above the task. Also, note that the tasks that are ready at the beginning of the balance are tasks a and b.

Finally, in this first example, we use a cycle time of Solution The following screen contains the solution to the first example. The solution screen consists of two windows as shown in the following screen. The window on the left gives the complete results for the method chosen whereas the window on the right gives the number of stations required not the theoretical number when using each balancing rule.

The solution screen will always have the same appearance and contain the same information regardless of the rule that is chosen for the balance. This is not always the case as is demonstrated later in this section. Station numbers. The station numbers appear in the far left column. They are displayed only for the first task that is loaded into each station. In this example, three stations are required. The tasks that are loaded into the station are listed in the second column.

In this example, Tasks b, e, and a are in Station 1; Tasks d and c are in Station 2; and Task f is in station 3. The length of time for each task appears in the third column. Time left. The length of time that remains at the station is listed in the fourth column. The last number at each station is, of course, the idle time at that station.

The idle times are colored in red. For example, there is 1 second of idle time at Station 1, 1 second of idle time at Station 2, and 2 seconds of idle time at Station 3, for a total of 4 seconds of idle time per cycle.

Ready tasks. The tasks that are ready appear here. A ready task is any task that has had its precedences met. This is emphasized because some books do not list a task as ready if its time exceeds the time remaining at the station.

Also, if the number of characters in the ready task list is very long, you might want to widen that column. The cycle time that was used appears below the balance. This cycle time was either given directly or computed. In this example, the cycle time was given directly as 10 seconds. Time allocated. The total time allocated for making each unit is displayed. This time is the product of the number of stations and the cycle time at each station. In this example there are three stations, each with a cycle time of 10 seconds, for a total work time of 30 station-seconds.

The time needed to make one unit. This is simply the sum of the task times. Idle time. This is the time needed subtracted from the time allocated. Efficiency is defined as the time needed divided by the time allocated.

Balance delay. The balance delay is the percentage of wasted time or percent minus the efficiency. Minimum theoretical number of stations. This is the total time to make 1 unit divided by the cycle time and rounded up to the nearest integer. In this example, 26 seconds are required to make 1 unit divided by a second cycle time for an answer of 2.

In addition, a second window opens that displays the number of stations required using each of the different balancing rules.

In this particular case, each rule led to the same number of stations, 3. This is not always the case as shown in Example 4. The precedence graph can be displayed see the end of this section , as well as a bar graph indicating how much time was used at each station. These are shown at the end of this section. In addition, if there is idle time at every station, a note will appear at the top indicating that the balance can be improved by reducing the cycle time.

For example, because there are idle times of 1, 1, and 2 seconds at the three stations, we could reduce the cycle time by 1 second. Example 2: Computing the cycle time Suppose that for the same data a production rate of units in 7. Other Rules Other rules that may be used are mentioned although the results are not displayed.

Please note that this is one of the modules where if you change the method using the drop-down box from the solution screen, the problem will immediately be resolved.

That is, you do not need to use the EDIT button and return to the data. Most Following Tasks A common way to choose tasks is by using the task with the most following tasks. Notice from the diagram at the beginning of the section that a has three tasks following it, and b also has two tasks following it. Therefore, there is a tie for the first task. If Task a is chosen then the next task chosen will be Task b because Task b has 3 following tasks whereas Task c has only one.

The task with the largest weight is scheduled first if it will fit in the remaining time. Notice that e has a higher ranked positional weight than c. Least Number of Followers The last rule that is available is the least number of followers. Example 3: What to do if longest operation time will not fit Some books and some software do not apply the longest operation time rule properly.

If the task with the longest time will not fit into the station, the task with the second longest time should be placed in the station if it will fit. In the following screen data is presented for eight tasks.

Notice that Tasks b, c, e, and f immediately follow Task a. The balance appears in the following screen for a cycle time of 5 seconds. After Task a is completed, tasks b, c, d, and e are ready. Task b is longest but will not fit in the 4 seconds that remain at Station 1. Therefore, Task c is inserted into the balance. Example 4: Splitting tasks If the cycle time is less than the amount of time to perform a specific task, there is a problem.

We perform what is termed task splitting but which in reality is actually duplication. For example, suppose that the cycle time is 2 minutes and some task takes 5 minutes. The task is performed 3 times by three people at three machines independent of one another.

The effect is that 3 units will be done every 5 minutes, which is equivalent to 1 unit every 1. Now, the actual way that the three people work may vary. Although other programs will split tasks, the assumptions vary from program to program.

Rather than making assumptions, you should split the tasks by dividing the task time appropriately. Suppose that in Example 1 a cycle time of 5 seconds was used. Then it is necessary to replicate both Tasks d and f because they will not fit in the cycle time. The approach to use is to solve the problem by dividing the task times by 2, because this replication is needed. The results are presented in the following screen.

Notice that different rules lead to different minimum numbers of stations! The first is a precedence graph, as shown in the following figure. Please note that there may be several different ways to draw a precedence graph.

The second graph not displayed here is of time used at each station. In a perfect world these would all be the same a perfect balance.

The number of jobs and number of machines do not have to be equal but usually they are. Objective function. The download is offered as it is, with no corrections or alterations performed on our side.

This tool was checked for viruses and was found to be safe. The file can be downloaded solely from the developer's website, so SoftDeluxe team bears no responsibility for the safety of the file. It is recommended that you check it for viruses. Downloading QM for Windows 5.

By Prentice-Hall Inc. Download details: File size:. About this program: Description Screenshots. Notes about this free download: Thank you for choosing us to download QM for Windows, we are glad to know you are among our users. Alternative software.

Excel QM and QM for Windows

The transportation model. Quantities Demand. The demands are the driving force of aggregate planning and these are given in the second column. Capacities — regular time, overtime, and subcontracting. The program allows for three types of production — regular time, overtime, and subcontracting, — and capacities for these are given in the next three columns. When deciding whether to use overtime or subcontracting, the program will always first select the one that is less expensive.

Costs The costs for the problem are all placed in the far right column of the data screen. Production costs — regular time, overtime, and subcontracting.

These are the per- unit production costs depending on when and how the unit is made. Inventory holding cost. This is the amount charged for holding 1 unit for 1 period. The total holding cost is charged against the ending inventory.

Be careful; although most textbooks charge against the ending inventory, some textbooks charge against average inventory during the period. Shortage cost. This is the amount charged for each unit that is short in a given period. Whether it is assumed that the shortages are backlogged and satisfied as soon as stock becomes available in a future period or are lost sales is indicated by the option box above the data table. Shortage costs are charged against end-of- month levels. Cost to increase production.

This is the cost that results from having changes in the production schedule. It is given on a per-unit basis. The cost for increasing production entails hiring costs. It is charged against the changes in the amount of regular time production but not charged against any overtime or subcontracting production volume changes.

If the units produced last period see other considerations below is zero, there will be no charge for increasing production in the first period. Cost to decrease production. This is similar to the cost of increasing production and is also given on a per-unit basis. However, this is the cost for reducing production. It is charged only against regular time production volume changes. Other Considerations Initial inventory.

Oftentimes we have a starting inventory from the end of the previous period. The starting inventory is placed in the far right column towards the bottom. Units last period. These units appear in the far right column at the bottom. The Solution In the first example, shown in the following screen, the smooth production method and backorders have been chosen. The demands are , , , and , and the regular time capacity of exceeds this demand.

There is no initial inventory. The numbers represent the production quantities. The costs can be seen toward the bottom of the columns. The screen contains information on both a period-by-period basis and on a summary basis.

Notice the color coding of the data black , intermediate computations magenta and results blue. Regular time production. This amount is determined by the program for all options except User Defined. In this example, because the gross or net demand is , there are units produced in regular time in each of the 4 periods. If the total demand is not an even multiple of the number of periods, extra units will be produced in as many periods as necessary in order to meet the demand.

For example, had the total demand been , the production schedule would have been in the first and second periods and in the other two periods. The accumulated inventory appears in this column if it is positive. If there is a shortage, the amount of the shortage appears in this column.

In the example, the in the shortage column for Period 3 means that units of demand have not been met. Because the backlog option has been chosen, the demands are met as soon as possible, which is in the last period. In this example, no increase or decrease from month to month occurs, so these columns do not appear in this display. The total numbers of units demanded, produced, in inventory, short, or in increased and decreased production are computed.

In the example, units were demanded and units were produced, and there were a total of unit- months of inventory, unit-months of shortage, and 0 increased or decreased production unit-months.

In addition, the method has been changed to use the net demand. Thus only units per month need to be produced. This can be seen as follows.

Because there is not enough regular time capacity, the program looks to overtime and subcontracting. It first chooses the one that is less expensive. Example 4: When subcontracting is less expensive than overtime The following screen shows a case where subcontracting is less expensive than overtime. This time, the program first chooses subcontracting and, because there is sufficient capacity, overtime is not used at all.

The output shows a shortage of units at the end of Period 3. In the next period, we produce units even though we need only units. These extra units are not used to satisfy the Period 3 shortage, because these have become lost sales. The units go into inventory, as can be seen from the inventory column in Period 4. It does not make sense to use the smooth production model and have lost sales. In the end, the total demand is not actually , because of the sales were lost.

Example 6: The produce to demand no inventory strategy From the first example the method has been toggled to produce to demand or chase strategy. The inventory is not displayed because it is always 0 under this option.

If production decreases, the decrease appears in this column. Example 7: Increase and decrease charging The previous example had increases and decreases in production. These increases and decreases are accounted for by regular time production. In the following screen, the regular time capacity is reduced in order to force production through regular time and overtime. Notice that the increase column only has a value in it in the second period when regular time production went from to units.

The regular time production remains at ; even though overtime increases, this does not show up in the increase columns. There are no charges against overtime or subcontracting increases. The only difference is that the transportation model does not consider changes in production levels, so there is no data entry allowed for increase and decrease costs or for units last period. The creation screen will ask for the number of periods and whether shortages are allowed.

The similarity to the previous input screens can be seen as follows. Notice that there is only one entry for each of the costs. Thus, this model can not be used for situations where the costs change from period to period. You must formulate these problems yourself using the transportation model from the Module menu rather than this transportation submodel of aggregate planning.

Note: The transportation model that is the second submodel in the New menu can also be accessed as the last method in the first submodel, The solution screen is displayed next.

The window on the right summarizes the production quantities, unit-months of holding and shortage if applicable , and the costs. It is even more obvious that this is a transportation problem if the second window of output which is the transportation model itself is examined.

The large numbers 9, have been entered in order to preclude the program from backordering. If you like, this table could be copied; you could then open the Transportation model, create a new empty table that is 13 by 4 and paste this data in to that table. Five heuristic rules can be used for performing the balance. The cycle time can be given explicitly or the production rate can be given and the program will compute the cycle time. This model will not split tasks.

Task splitting is discussed in more detail in a later section. The Model The general framework for assembly-line balancing is dictated by the number of tasks that are to be balanced. These tasks are partially ordered, as shown, for example in the precedence diagram that follows. The five heuristic rules that can be chosen are as follows: 1. Longest operation time 2.

Most following tasks 3. Ranked positional weight 4. Shortest operation time 5. Note that tie breaking can affect the final results. The remaining parameters are as follows: Cycle time computation. The cycle time can be given in one of two ways. One way involves giving the cycle time directly as shown in the preceding screen. Although this is the easiest method, it is more common to determine the cycle time from the demand rate.

The cycle time is converted into the same units as the times for the tasks. See Example 2. Task time unit. The time unit for the tasks is given by this drop-down box. You must choose seconds, hours, or minutes. Notice that the column heading for the task times will change as you select different time units.

Task names. The task names are essential for assembly-line balancing because they determine the precedences. Case does not matter. Task times. The task times are given. Enter the precedences, one per cell. If there are two precedences they must be entered in two cells. In fact, a comma will not be accepted. Notice that in the precedence list in the previous screen both a and A have been typed.

Also, note that the tasks that are ready at the beginning of the balance are tasks a and b. Finally, in this first example, we use a cycle time of Solution The following screen contains the solution to the first example. The solution screen consists of two windows as shown in the following screen. The window on the left gives the complete results for the method chosen whereas the window on the right gives the number of stations required not the theoretical number when using each balancing rule.

In this example, Tasks b, e, and a are in Station 1; Tasks d and c are in Station 2; and Task f is in station 3. The length of time for each task appears in the third column.

Time left. The length of time that remains at the station is listed in the fourth column. The last number at each station is, of course, the idle time at that station. The idle times are colored in red. For example, there is 1 second of idle time at Station 1, 1 second of idle time at Station 2, and 2 seconds of idle time at Station 3, for a total of 4 seconds of idle time per cycle.

In this example there are three stations, each with a cycle time of 10 seconds, for a total work time of 30 station-seconds. The time needed to make one unit. This is simply the sum of the task times. Idle time. This is the time needed subtracted from the time allocated. Efficiency is defined as the time needed divided by the time allocated. Balance delay. The balance delay is the percentage of wasted time or percent minus the efficiency. Minimum theoretical number of stations. This is the total time to make 1 unit divided by the cycle time and rounded up to the nearest integer.

In this example, 26 seconds are required to make 1 unit divided by a second cycle time for an answer of 2. In addition, a second window opens that displays the number of stations required using each of the different balancing rules. In this particular case, each rule led to the same number of stations, 3. This is not always the case as shown in Example 4.

The precedence graph can be displayed see the end of this section , as well as a bar graph indicating how much time was used at each station. These are shown at the end of this section. In addition, if there is idle time at every station, a note will appear at the top indicating that the balance can be improved by reducing the cycle time. For example, because there are idle times of 1, 1, and 2 seconds at the three stations, we could reduce the cycle time by 1 second.

Example 2: Computing the cycle time Suppose that for the same data a production rate of units in 7. Other Rules Other rules that may be used are mentioned although the results are not displayed.

Please note that this is one of the modules where if you change the method using the drop-down box from the solution screen, the problem will immediately be resolved. That is, you do not need to use the EDIT button and return to the data. Most Following Tasks A common way to choose tasks is by using the task with the most following tasks. Notice from the diagram at the beginning of the section that a has three tasks following it, and b also has two tasks following it.

Therefore, there is a tie for the first task. If Task a is chosen then the next task chosen will be Task b because Task b has 3 following tasks whereas Task c has only one. The task with the largest weight is scheduled first if it will fit in the remaining time. Notice that e has a higher ranked positional weight than c. Least Number of Followers The last rule that is available is the least number of followers. Example 3: What to do if longest operation time will not fit Some books and some software do not apply the longest operation time rule properly.

If the task with the longest time will not fit into the station, the task with the second longest time should be placed in the station if it will fit.

In the following screen data is presented for eight tasks. Notice that Tasks b, c, e, and f immediately follow Task a. The balance appears in the following screen for a cycle time of 5 seconds.

After Task a is completed, tasks b, c, d, and e are ready. Task b is longest but will not fit in the 4 seconds that remain at Station 1. Therefore, Task c is inserted into the balance. Example 4: Splitting tasks If the cycle time is less than the amount of time to perform a specific task, there is a problem.

Now, the actual way that the three people work may vary. Although other programs will split tasks, the assumptions vary from program to program. Rather than making assumptions, you should split the tasks by dividing the task time appropriately.

Suppose that in Example 1 a cycle time of 5 seconds was used. Then it is necessary to replicate both Tasks d and f because they will not fit in the cycle time. The approach to use is to solve the problem by dividing the task times by 2, because this replication is needed.

The results are presented in the following screen. Notice that different rules lead to different minimum numbers of stations! The first is a precedence graph, as shown in the following figure.

Please note that there may be several different ways to draw a precedence graph. The second graph not displayed here is of time used at each station. In a perfect world these would all be the same a perfect balance.

The model is a special case of the transportation method. In order to generate an assignment problem, it is necessary to provide the number of jobs and machines and to indicate whether the problem is a minimization or maximization problem. The number of jobs and number of machines do not have to be equal but usually they are. Objective function. The objective can be to minimize or to maximize. This is set at the creation screen but can be changed in the data screen.

Example 1 The following table shows data for a 7-by-7 assignment problem. The goal is to assign each salesperson to a territory at minimum total cost. There must be exactly one salesperson per territory and exactly one territory per salesperson. The data structure is nearly identical to the structure for the transportation model. The basic difference is that the assignment model does not display supplies and demands because they are all equal to one.

Note: To try to preclude an assignment from being made, such as Bruce to Pennsylvania in this example, enter a very large cost. The assignments can also be given in list form, as shown in the following screen.

The marginal costs can be displayed also. Cost-volume analysis is used to find the point of indifference between two options based on fixed and variable costs. A breakeven point is computed in terms of units or dollars. Breakeven analysis is simply a special case of cost-volume analysis where there is one fixed cost, one variable cost, and revenue- per-unit.

Cost-Volume Analysis In cost-volume analysis, two or more options are compared to determine what option is least costly at any volume. The costs consist of two types - fixed costs and variable costs, but there may be several individual costs that comprise the fixed costs or the variable costs. In the example that follows, there are five different individual costs and two options.

Data Cost type. Each type of cost must be identified as either a fixed cost or a variable cost. The default is that the first cost in the list is fixed and that all other costs are variable. These values can be changed by using the drop-down box in that cell. The specific costs for each option are listed in the two right columns in the table.

If a volume analysis is desired, enter the volume at which this analysis should be performed. The volume analysis will compute the total cost revenue at the chosen volume. If the volume is 0, no volume analysis will be performed other than for the breakeven point. Volume analysis is at units. In the preceding screen there are five costs with some fixed and some variable. The program displays the following results: Total fixed costs. For each of the two options, the program takes the fixed costs, sums them, and lists them in the table.

Total variable costs. The program identifies the variable costs, sums them, and lists them. Breakeven point in units.

The breakeven point is the difference between the fixed costs divided by the difference between the variable costs, and this is displayed in units.

In the example, it is units. Breakeven point in dollars. The breakeven point can also be expressed in dollars. A volume analysis has been performed for a volume of units. The total fixed costs and total variable costs have been computed for each option and these have been summed to yield the total cost for each option. A graph is available, as follows. Data entry for this option is slightly different in that the program creates a column for costs and a column for revenues.

The fixed and variable costs get entered in the cost column and the revenue per unit is placed in the revenue column. This model requires exactly three inputs.

This example could also have been solved using the cost-volume submodel. Select two options and let one be the costs and one be the revenues. Place the fixed costs and variable costs in their obvious cells; use no fixed cost for the revenue and use the revenue per unit as a variable cost, displayed as follows.

The following screen demonstrates the output for a three-option breakeven. The screen indicates that there are three breakeven points as it makes comparisons for Computer 1 versus Computer 2, Computer 1 versus Computer 3, and Computer 2 versus Computer 3. Of course, even though there are three breakeven points, only two of them are relevant.

This is seen a little more easily by looking at the following breakeven graph. The breakeven point at 40, units does not matter because at 40, units the two computers that break even have higher costs than the Computer 2 option. The data for this example consist of a stream of inflows and a stream of outflows.

In addition, for finding the net present value an interest rate must be given. Net Present Value Consider the following example. The company would like to know the net present value using an interest rate of 10 percent. The data screen follows. The screen has two columns for data. One column is labeled Inflow and the other column is labeled Outflow. At the time of problem creation a six-period problem was created and the data table includes the six periods plus the current period 0.

The six savings in the second column are inflows, and they are placed in the inflow column for Periods 1 through 6. The salvage value could be handled two ways, and we have chosen the way that we think gives a better display. Instead, it is represented as a negative outflow. This keeps the meaning of the numbers clearer. The last item to be entered is the interest rate in the text box above the data. To the right of this, the inflows and outflows are multiplied by these present value factors, and the far right column contains the present values for the net inflow inflow minus outflow on a period-by-period basis.

Internal Rate of Return The computation of the internal rate of return is very simple. The data is set up the same way but the method box is changed from net present value to internal rate of return. The results appear as follows. You can see that the internal rate of return for the same data is The Decision Table Model The decision table can be used to find the expected value, the maximin minimax , or the maximax minimin when several decision options are available and there are several scenarios that might occur.

Also, the expected value under certainty, the expected value of perfect information, and the regret opportunity cost can be computed. The general framework for decision tables is given by the number of options or alternatives that are available to the decision maker and the number of scenarios or states of nature that might occur.

In addition, the objective can be set to either maximize profits or to minimize costs. Scenario probabilities. For each scenario it is possible but not required to enter a probability. The expected value measures expected monetary value, expected value under certainty, and expected value of perfect information require probabilities, whereas the maximin minimax and maximax minimin do not. Profits or costs. The profit cost for each combination of options and scenarios is to be given.

Hurwicz alpha. The Hurwicz value is used to give a weighted average of the best and worst outcomes for each strategy row. Please note that the Hurwicz value is not in every textbook. The possible scenarios states of nature are that demand will be low, normal, or high; or that there will be a strike or a work slowdown. The table contains profits as indicated. The first row in the table represents the probability that each of these states will occur.

The remaining three rows represent the profit that we accrue if we make that decision and the state of nature occurs. For example, if we select to use overtime and there is high demand, the profit will be Solution The results screen that follows contains both the data and the results for this example. Expected values. Row minimum. For each row, the minimum element has been found and listed. This element is used to find the maximin or minimin. For each row, the maximum element in the row has been found and listed.

This number is used for determining the maximax or minimax. These represent 40 percent multiplied by the best outcome plus 60 percent multiplied by the worst outcome for each row. For example, for subcontracting the Hurwicz is. Maximum expected value. Because this is a profit problem finding the maximum values is of importance. The maximum expected value is the largest number in the expected value column, which in this example is In this example, the maximin is The maximax is the largest value in the table or the largest value in the maximum column.

In this example, it is Perfect Information A second screen of results presents the computations for the expected value of perfect information as follows. Perfect information. In this row, the best outcome for each column is listed. For example, for the low demand scenario the best outcome is the given by using overtime. The expected value under certainty is computed as the sum of the products of the probabilities multiplied by the best outcomes.

Expected value of perfect information. The expected value of perfect information EVPI is the difference between the best expected value Table values. The values in the table are computed for each column as the cell value subtracted from the best value in the column in the data. For example, under low demand the best outcome is The two columns on the right yield two sets of results. There also is a window not displayed in this manual that yields Hurwicz values for alpha ranging from 0 to 1 by.

Decision Trees Decision trees are used when sequences of decisions are to be made. The trees consist of branches that connect either decision points, points representing chance, or final outcomes.

All decision tables can be put in the form of a decision tree. The converse is not true. Note: Version 4 of the software includes two different input styles for decision trees. The first model has tabular data entry whereas the second model is easier to use because it has graphical data entry. The first model has been maintained in the software for consistency with previous versions. Example 2: A decision tree — Graphical user interface One of the models allows for decision trees to be entered graphically rather than in the table as given previously.

This model can be used to examine the same example just completed. After selecting the model, the interface will be displayed as follows. This is the only model in the software that has an input interface that is not the usual data table interface.

The graph is displayed in the large area on the left and created using the tools on the right. In the beginning, there is only one node.

The next step is to add two event nodes to node 1. The tool on the right is set to node 1. The default for node 1 is that it is a decision node as needed in this case. A button is available to change the node if this becomes necessary. The new tree appears as follows. The current node is node 2, which is indicated by both the fact that the node number in the upper right is node 2 and by the fact that the branch to node 2 is highlighted in a different color.

At this point, two branches need to be added to node 2. The default is to add decision branches to events and vice versa. The type of node can always be changed later. This yields the following diagram. After all data has been entered, click on the Solve button on the toolbar.

The data is in black and the solution is in blue as usual. Notice that branches that should be used are indicated in blue. In the past, an airline has observed a demand for meals that are sold on a plane as given in the following table.

How many meals should the airplane stock per flight? The program is requesting three profits as well as the obvious demands and probabilities. Profit per unit. This is the normal profit for units bought and sold. Profit per unit excess. This is the profit for units that are overordered.

In some cases, where there is a salvage value that exceeds the cost of the unit this will be a profit whereas in other cases this will be a loss. Profit per unit short. This is the profit for units when not enough units are ordered.

It will be a profit if you can purchase units to sell after the fact at a cost less than the selling price. Otherwise it will be a 0 or possibly a loss. If there were no voucher there would be no profit or loss for units for the demands that could not be satisfied.

Demands and probabilities. Enter the list of demands and their associated probabilities. The airline should order 20 meals to maximize its expected profit. Notice that the cities and the factors have been named. The output is very straightforward and consists of the following: Total weighted score.

For each city, the weights are multiplied by the scores for each factor and summed. The total is printed at the bottom of each column. The first type of model is when past data sales are used to predict the future demand. This is termed time series analysis, which includes the naive method, moving averages, weighted moving averages, exponential smoothing, exponential smoothing with trend, trend analysis, linear regression, multiplicative decomposition, and additive decomposition.

The second model is for situations where one variable demand is a function of one or more other variables. This is termed multiple regression. There is overlap between the two models in that simple one independent variable linear regression can be performed with either of the two submodels. In addition, this package contains a third model that enables the creation forecasts given a particular regression model, and a fourth model that enables the computation of errors given demands and forecasts.

Time Series The input to time series analysis is a series of numbers representing data over the most recent n time periods. Although the major result is always the forecast for the next period, additional results presented vary according to the technique that is chosen. When using trend analysis or seasonal decomposition, forecasts can be made for more than one period into the future.

The summary measures include the traditional error measures of bias average error , mean squared error, standard error, mean absolute deviation MAD , and mean absolute percent error MAPE.

Note: Different authors compute the standard error in slightly different ways. That is, the denominator in the square root is given by n — 2 by some authors and by n — 1 by others. If you have a Pearson textbook the denominator should match the one in your text. If not, POM-QM for Windows uses n — 2 in the denominator for simple cases and always displays the denominator in the output.

Week Sales January 3 January 10 January 17 January 24 January 31 February 7 The general framework for time series forecasting is given by indicating the number of past data points. The preceding example has data for the past six periods weeks , and the forecast for the next period - period 7 February 14 is needed. Forecasting method. The drop-down method box contains the eight methods that were named at the beginning of this module plus a method for users to enter their own forecasts in order to perform an error analysis.

Of course, the results depend on the forecasting method chosen. A moving average is shown in the preceding screen. Number of periods in the moving average, n. To use the moving average or weighted moving average, the number of periods in the average must be given. This is some integer between 1 and the number of time periods of data. In the preceding example, 2 periods were chosen, as seen in the extra data area. Demand y or Values for dependent y variable. These are the most important numbers because they represent the data.

The data is in the demand column as , , , , , and Solution The solution screens are all similar, but the exact output depends on the method chosen. For the smoothing techniques of moving averages weighted or unweighted and single exponential smoothing, there is one set of output, whereas for exponential smoothing with trend, there is a slightly different output display.

For the regression models, there is another set of output. The first available method is the naive method which simply uses the data for the most recent period as the forecast for the next period. Begin with the moving averages. The main output is a summary table of results. The computations for all of these results can be seen on the following details window. The first column of output data is the set of forecasts that would be made when using the technique.

Notice that because this is a 2-week moving average, the first forecast cannot be made until the third week. The following three numbers — , Next period forecast.

As mentioned in the previous paragraph, the last forecast is below the data and is the forecast for the next period; it is marked as such on the screen. In the example, it is This column begins the error analysis. The difference between the forecast and the demand appears in this column.

The first row to have an entry is the row in which the first forecast takes place. In this example, the first forecast occurs on January 17 row 3 and the forecast was for , which means that the error was 0. In the next week the forecast was for , but the demand was only , so the error was Absolute value of the error.

The fifth column contains the absolute value of the error and is used to compute the MAD, or total absolute deviation. Notice that the in the error column has become a plain, unsigned, positive 10 in this column. Error squared. The sixth column contains the square of each error in order to compute the mean squared error and standard error. The 10 has been squared and is listed as Be aware that when squaring numbers it is quite possible that the numbers will become large and that the display will become a little messy.

This is especially true when printing. Absolute percentage error. The seventh column contains the absolute value of the error divided by the demand. If the demand is 0, then the software will issue a warning regarding the MAPE.

The total for the demand and each of the four error columns appears in this row. This row contains the answers to problems in books that rely on the total absolute deviation rather than the mean absolute deviation. Books using total instead of mean should caution students about unfair comparisons when there are different numbers of periods in the error computation.

The averages for each of the four errors appear in this row. The average error is termed the bias and many books neglect this very useful error measure. The average squared error is termed the mean squared error MSE and is typically associated with regression least squares. The average of the absolute percentage errors is termed the mean absolute percentage error MAPE.

In this example, the bias is 1. Standard error. One more error measure is important. This is the standard error. Different books have different formulas for the standard error.

That is, some use n —1 in the denominator, and some use n — 2. The denominator is displayed in the summary output as shown previously. In this example, the standard error is Note: The Normal distribution calculator can be used to find confidence intervals and address other probabilistic questions related to forecasting.

One more screen is available for all of these methods. It is a screen that gives the forecast control tracking signals results. For moving averages there is a summary screen of error measures, versus the n in the moving average.

Also, the moving average graph has a scroll bar that enables you to easily see how the forecasts change as n varies. The far right column is where the weights are to be placed. The weights may be fractions that sum to 1 as in this example.

If they do not, they will be rescaled. In this example, weights of. For example, the forecast for week 7 is. A secondary solution screen follows. As before, the errors and the error measures are computed.

In order to use exponential smoothing, a value for the smoothing constant, alpha, must be entered. This number is between 0 and 1. The smoothing constant alpha is. A starting forecast for exponential smoothing. In order to perform exponential smoothing, a starting forecast is necessary. Underneath will be a blank column. If you want, you may enter one number in this column as the forecast. If you enter no number, the starting forecast is taken as the starting demand.

The results screen has the same columns and appearance as the previous two methods, as shown next. Also, the graph for exponential smoothing has a scrollbar that enables you easily to see how the forecasts change as alpha varies. Example 4: Exponential smoothing with trend3 Exponential smoothing with trend requires two smoothing constants.

A smoothing constant, beta, for the trend is added to the model. Beta, for exponential smoothing. In order to perform exponential smoothing with trend, a smoothing constant must be given in addition to alpha. If beta is 0, single exponential smoothing is performed. If beta is positive, exponential smoothing with trend is performed as shown.

Initial trend. In this model, the trend will be set to 0 unless it is initialized. It should be set for the same time period as the initial forecast. The solution screen for this technique is different from the screens for the previously described techniques. Although they are all similar, the results will vary. This is unfortunate but unavoidable. If you are using a Prentice Hall text, be certain that the software is registered Help, User Information for that text in order to get the matching results.

A sample summary output using regression for the same data follows. Values for independent x variable. For time series regression, the default values are set to 1 through n and cannot be changed.

For paired regression, the actual values of the dependent variable need to be entered see Example 6. The screen is set up in order that the computations made for finding the slope and the intercept will be apparent. In order to find these values, it is necessary to compute the sum of the x2 and the sum of the xy. These two columns are presented. Depending on the book, either the sum of these columns or the average of these columns, as well as the first two columns, will be used to generate the regression line.

The line is given by the slope and the intercept, which are listed at the bottom left of the screen. This is given by inserting one more than the number of periods into the regression line. In the example, we would insert 7 into the preceding equation, yielding The standard error is computed and shown as with all other methods.

In this example, it is 8. Also notice that the mean squared error is displayed The bias is, of course, 0, because linear regression is unbiased. The summary screen is displayed as follows. The software is to be downloaded for free. The download is offered as it is, with no corrections or alterations performed on our side. This tool was checked for viruses and was found to be safe.

The file can be downloaded solely from the developer's website, so SoftDeluxe team bears no responsibility for the safety of the file. It is recommended that you check it for viruses. Downloading QM for Windows 5. By Prentice-Hall Inc. Download details: File size:. About this program: Description Screenshots.

Notes about this free download: Thank you for choosing us to download QM for Windows, we are glad to know you are among our users.

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